Prices & Review

Overview (April 2026)

While the conflict in Iran remains center-stage and is creating many issues for the global economy by introducing significant bottlenecks in the supply of critical commodities, equity markets are for the most part showing remarkable resilience with the S&P, Nasdaq and Nikkei fully recouping losses and setting new record highs.

Recent flash manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data is showing robustness in the US, Europe, UK and Japan, with an average reading of 53.7 in April, compared with an average reading of 51.6 in March, despite the concern about higher energy prices.

The metals behaved differently. Initially, most base metals edged lower as the conflict escalated, with traders focused on the potential hit to demand. Prices came under further pressure after the March FOMC meeting proved more hawkish than expected, as the combination of higher energy prices and reduced likelihood for US interest rate cuts raised concerns about slower economic growth. US ten-year treasury yields climbed to around 4.35 percent, from 3.95 percent at the end of February.

However, from the second half of March through mid-April, base metals prices rebounded, suggesting that market attention had shifted from demand concerns to the risk of supply disruptions. The focus turned to the impact of disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz on oil, gas and sulphur exports. Higher oil/diesel prices increase mining and transport costs, while higher sulphur prices and likely sulphur shortages, raise concerns for nickel and SX-EW copper production, but also cobalt and spodumene.

Activity across most metals then eased toward the end of April as the market adopted a wait-and-see stance. The main exception was nickel, which strengthened further in late April as supply concerns intensified.

This latest energy crisis is expected to accelerate countries’ efforts to strengthen energy security by doubling down on renewable energy investment. This, in turn, should boost demand for critical minerals used in wind and solar projects, electricity grids and energy storage systems. While EV demand remains robust globally, even with China’s EV sales slowing in the first quarter due to lower subsidies, demand for energy storage systems remains strong. As a result, and alongside some supply restraint in the battery raw materials, including export quotas on DRC cobalt and idle capacity in lithium, battery raw material prices have remained relatively firm.

Given the strength in equities, base metals and energy markets, it is perhaps not surprising that precious metals have entered a consolidation phase, particularly after being the strongest-performing segment of the commodities complex over the past two years in the case of gold, and over the past year for silver and the platinum group metals. Late April brings a series of central bank policy announcements, with markets focused on their latest views on inflation and the risks of slower economic growth.