Prices & Review

Overview (July 2026)

Base metals spent July recovering from the sell-offs seen in May and June. Zinc, copper and tin led the recovery, with prices ending July around 4 percent below their May highs while aluminium, nickel and lead were down around 12.4 percent below their peaks.

What is notable, however, is what did not move metals. The usual macro chain of higher oil prices lifting inflation concerns, pushing bond yields up, and strengthening the US dollar has not exerted its typical downward pressure. Even gold has failed to respond to the rising geopolitical tension and firmer inflation risks. By late July, US 10?year Treasury yields had climbed to 4.7%, up from 4.5% at the start of the month, while the US Dollar Index reached 101.50, compared with 95.50 in late January. Yet metals showed little sensitivity to these macro headwinds.

Despite the headwind from higher energy prices, the global economy has remained relatively resilient. Preliminary manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) data ticked higher in July, with the average reading across the US, Europe, Japan and the UK rising to 53.3 from 53.1 in June. The increase was modest, but the outright level remains healthy. Early second-quarter GDP readings were more mixed, with annualized US growth of 1.5 percent and Eurozone growth of 0.4 percent quarter on quarter, suggesting that growth remains positive but moderate.

The main area of concern is China, where Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, the weakest on record. Construction and consumer spending were particularly soft, and China is relying heavily on export markets to offset domestic weakness.

The overall economic outlook is still being shaped by three major forces with the Middle East risks creating supply shocks, the technology super-cycle driving growth, while near-shoring, as a result of deglobalisation, is boosting capital expenditure in Europe and the US.

A common thread across the metals is that headline global balances are less informative than regional situations whether it be regional stock draw downs, elevated physical premiums, negative treatment charges or backwardations. The market is trading the granular picture, not the broad supply?demand narrative.