Prices & Review

Overview (November 2025)

Base metals delivered a mixed performance in November. Copper, aluminum, and zinc pulled back from their late-October highs, while nickel fell to levels not seen since the Liberation Day sell-off in April. Tin extended gains over the month, whereas lead retreated. Precious metals followed a similar path to copper, pulling back from October’s highs and entering a phase of consolidation.

One headwind for metals has been the slightly stronger US dollar, which has extended its rebound from the September low. The Dollar Index has risen to 100.40 from 96.22. The dollar’s rally has been driven by uncertainty over the pace of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, as well as weakness in other major currencies—including the euro, yen, and sterling—amid soft economic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Strained relations between Japan and China, along with Europe’s growing vulnerability as a US/Russian proposal to end the war in Europe appeared to tilt in Russia’s favor have further weighted on sentiment.

Overall, US equity markets have remained resilient, with the main indices reaching new highs in late-October or early-November. Although worries about a potential AI-driven bubble briefly rattled sentiment—sending the Dow Jones down 5.6 percent over a seven-day period—markets ultimately shrugged off the concerns, and prices recovered into month-end. The buoyancy in equities is happening despite some weak US data. US retail sales increased by only 0.2 percent in September, the smallest rise in four months, US consumer confidence weakened in November on rising labor-market and economic concerns, with the reading the lowest since April. US preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for November fell to 51.9, from 52.5 and the University of Michigan inflation expectations survey saw inflation at 4.5 percent.

Demand for metals, however, appears to be strengthening, likely driven by the accelerating shift toward electrification and the huge investment into AI and datacenters. Rapid growth in these sectors looks set to support growth for all the base metals, as well as silver and battery raw materials. Key will be, whether supply will be able to keep up with demand, given how long it can take, especially in the West, to build new greenfield mines and local supply chains. China and its partner countries appear to be rapidly developing supply chains, raising concerns about whether Western nations can meaningfully reduce their dependence on Chinese production.

While the new world order appears to be moving toward deglobalisation—and China and the BRICS seem relatively well positioned to adapt—the West seems far less prepared for such a shift. This evolving situation makes it increasingly important for Western economies to accelerate innovation and streamline permitting processes, not only to support domestic mining but also to strengthen regional supply chains.

As competition intensifies between global blocs, investment in alternative sources and recycling becomes more critical for reducing vulnerabilities. The shifting landscape also highlights the need for greater collaboration between governments and industry to address the challenges of supply bottlenecks and ensure resilience. The path forward will likely depend on how effectively the West adapts its strategies to meet both environmental standards and rising demand, while navigating geopolitical tensions and market disruptions.