Prices & Review

Overview (July 2025)

Base metals delivered a mixed performance in Ju-ly, with most of the metals consolidating, except for tin and zinc which trended higher. The US dollar also showed a mixed pattern: after hitting a multi-year low of 96.37 on the Dollar Index in early July, it rebounded to 98.95 mid-month, before consolidating around 97.50. Overall, the dollar remains weak.

A key event in the base metals sector was the in-troduction of a 50% Section 232 tariff on copper. This led to CME copper prices trading at a $3,000 per tonne premium over LME prices and influenced regional pre-miums, which initially increased as traders sourced copper units for shipment to the US, then declined as the win-dow for shipping before August 1 closed. Markets have also been tracking reciprocal tariff agreements, which have generally been set at lower levels than those an-nounced in April on Liberation Day. While lower tariffs are good news for the global economy, tariffs could be a major headwind for global growth. For now, economic trends and market sentiment do not seem to be reflecting this headwind - highlighted by US equity indices hovering at, or near, record highs. However, there is growing con-cern that investors may be too complacent about the risks. It is difficult to imagine that tariffs will not dampen US demand and adversely affect foreign producers reliant on exports to the US. As such, some economic challeng-es may lie ahead, potentially affecting company profits and overall growth. These risks seem to be underpinning strong gold prices and, more recently, have started to push second-tier safe-havens, like silver, the PGMs and less popular crypto-currencies, such as Ethereum, to play catch-up with the tier-one safe-havens, gold and bitcoin. A positive development was the softening of the US stance toward China with a US/China trade framework agreement, one that reduced tariffs to 55%. Additionally, it looks like the August 12 deadline for a final trade agreement may be extended by 90-days. Within the framework, the US has reduced its restrictions on tech-nology exports to China and China has reduced some of its restrictions on the export of rare earths. The US now has trade agreements with the UK, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and Europe, with the latter two, set at 15%.

On the geopolitical front, the suspension of military strikes against Iran has helped ease tensions in the Middle East and reduced the risk of the Straits of Hormuz being closed, which would have had a significant impact on oil and LPG exports and prices. There has been no progress in ending the war with Ukraine, but the US does seem to be swinging round to being more sup-portive to Ukraine. With Russia’s aggressive stance, an arms race in Europe is likely to boost growth in the region.

Europe’s economy remains weak with the flash manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for July reading 49.8, from 49.5 in June, but still in contraction mode. China’s economy continues to face head-winds, with second quarter GDP growth slowing to 5.2%, from 5.4% in the first quarter. The US economy remains buoyant, with employers continuing to add jobs and inflation rising to 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% in May, still above the Fed’s 2% target. As a result, the Fed-eral Reserve remains reluctant to cut rates, despite Presi-dent Donald Trump putting pressure on Powell to do so. With tariffs set to start in August, the Fed may well hold off cutting rates for longer, unless tariffs lead to signifi-cant market weakness. The market is pricing in a 63% chance of a rate cut in September. While China’s economy is under pressure and experiencing deflation, the gov-ernment continues to provide stimulus and announced a massive $170 billion infrastructure project to build five hydroelectric dams that are expected to be built by 2030. Historically, major infrastructure projects like this have been bullish for metal demand, especially given the pace of construction expected.