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Prices & Review

Daily price | 2020-02

Copper

Date(Fix.)($/MT) Average5699.77 2020-02-175802 2020-02-145737 2020-02-135716 2020-02-125747 2020-02-115696 2020-02-105659.5 2020-02-075653 2020-02-065726 2020-02-055714 2020-02-045652 2020-02-035595

Lead

Date(Fix.)($/MT) Average1855.45 2020-02-171911 2020-02-141875 2020-02-131877 2020-02-121861 2020-02-111820 2020-02-101810 2020-02-071835 2020-02-061844 2020-02-051843.5 2020-02-041854.5 2020-02-031879

Nickel

Date(Fix.)($/MT) Average12957.73 2020-02-1713070 2020-02-1413035 2020-02-1313065 2020-02-1213050 2020-02-1113100 2020-02-1012880 2020-02-0712770 2020-02-0613010 2020-02-0513005 2020-02-0412800 2020-02-0312750

Gold

Date(Fix.)AM
($/oz)
MEAN
($/oz)
PM
($/oz)
Average 1569.52 1569.07 1568.62 2020-02-17 0 - 2020-02-14 1576.35 1578.88 1581.4 2020-02-13 1575 1575.03 1575.05 2020-02-12 1566.75 1565.23 1563.7 2020-02-11 1567.7 1569.1 1570.5 2020-02-10 1574.05 1573.63 1573.2 2020-02-07 1568.3 1570.48 1572.65 2020-02-06 1564.75 1564.03 1563.3 2020-02-05 1552.2 1552.75 1553.3 2020-02-04 1571.2 1564.78 1558.35 2020-02-03 1578.85 1576.8 1574.75

Silver

Date(Fix.)($/oz) Average17.71 2020-02-17- 2020-02-1417.705 2020-02-1317.64 2020-02-1217.56 2020-02-1117.705 2020-02-1017.785 2020-02-0717.77 2020-02-0617.765 2020-02-0517.62 2020-02-0417.73 2020-02-0317.77

Tin

Date(Fix.)($/MT) Average16420.91 2020-02-1716630 2020-02-1416525 2020-02-1316530 2020-02-1216475 2020-02-1116380 2020-02-1016350 2020-02-0716325 2020-02-0616575 2020-02-0516335 2020-02-0416155 2020-02-0316350

Zinc

Date(Fix.)($/MT) Average2169.09 2020-02-172153.5 2020-02-142138 2020-02-132157 2020-02-122140 2020-02-112145 2020-02-102128 2020-02-072152.5 2020-02-062206 2020-02-052222.5 2020-02-042217.5 2020-02-032200

Cobalt(Standard Grade MB free market low quotation)

Date(Fix.)($/lb) Average16.7 2020-02-17- 2020-02-1416.85 2020-02-13- 2020-02-1216.7 2020-02-11- 2020-02-10- 2020-02-0716.7 2020-02-06- 2020-02-0516.55 2020-02-04- 2020-02-03-

Platinum

Date(Fix.)AM
($/oz)
MEAN
($/oz)
PM
($/oz)
Average 968.6 968.4 968.2 2020-02-17 - 0 - 2020-02-14 972 972 972 2020-02-13 965 965 965 2020-02-12 966 964 962 2020-02-11 965 964.5 964 2020-02-10 970 968.5 967 2020-02-07 969 970 971 2020-02-06 976 976.5 977 2020-02-05 971 972.5 974 2020-02-04 980 972 964 2020-02-03 952 959 966

Palladium

Date(Fix.)AM
($/oz)
MEAN
($/oz)
PM
($/oz)
Average 2380.8 2378.7 2376.6 2020-02-17 - 0 - 2020-02-14 2441 2449.5 2458 2020-02-13 2400 2406 2412 2020-02-12 2341 2342 2343 2020-02-11 2329 2331.5 2334 2020-02-10 2367 2366.5 2366 2020-02-07 2338 2318 2298 2020-02-06 2414 2415 2416 2020-02-05 2483 2461 2439 2020-02-04 2404 2402 2400 2020-02-03 2291 2295.5 2300

Overview (January 2020)

Markets, in general, started 2020 on an upbeat mode and were looking forward to economic activity accelerating in the Lunar New Year, especially after the Phase 1 trade deal between the US and China had been signed. But, that has been dashed by the outbreak of Coronavirus in China, with the market now worried that the epidemic could hit the recovery in China and at worse could turn into a pandemic that triggers a global recession. While equity markets have slipped with US equities down by around 3.4 percent (Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.7% & S&P -3.1%), the EuroStoxx 50 down by 4.4 percent and China's CSI down 4.3 percent (up until it closed on January 23), metal prices have fallen more. Losses in the base metals have an average 11.1 percent and are ranged between 5.8 percent for aluminium and 13.3 percent for nickel.
Given so much uncertainty about the impact of the virus, as it is still early days and the collection of data may be being delayed as it is happening over the holiday period, the next reaction by the markets remains to be seen. The virus was first reported to the World Health Organisation on December 31, since then some 6,000 people have been infected and 132 deaths have been reported (as of January 29). Has Doctor Copper and its ten percent price correction understood the likely impact more accurately than the stock markets? Unfortunately, this is likely to be a case of having to wait to see how things unfold, although working out one’s contingency plans during this lull would be recommended. What are other markets saying? Gold prices at $1,570 per oz are climbing, but have not shot higher - indeed they are not as high as they were in the aftermath of the US’s assignation of Iranian General Qasem Suleimani in early January. The US dollar has continued to rally, the dollar index was recently at 98.15, up from 96.20 at the start of the year, perhaps the strong dollar is acting as a drag on gold. US ten-year treasury yields are at 1.92 percent, compared with 1.94 percent at the time of the December report, so only show a slight pick-up in safe-haven buying. Overall, while it will take time for the fallout from the virus to be ascertained, the near term impact can be estimated. Firstly, the lockdown of people in several cities will, at best, mean people return to work in dribs and drabs and that will impact the gearing-up of the economy. Second, movement restrictions are likely to affect the movement of goods and services along the supply chain, which could further disrupt economic activity in China, but if exports are also affected then that could hit the global market too. Thirdly, if ports are slow to start up then that could see shipments into China being delayed, which would lead to the build-up of inventory waiting to be sent to China and that could have financing and cash-flow issues for exporters.
If the virus does look set to hit China’s manufacturing base hard, then given the global economy has generally been on a back footing due to the trade war that had been underway for two years, the supply chain is likely to be running with low stocks, which should mean there is not too much room for panic destocking, as was seen in the 2008 financial crisis, which came straight after the super-cycle. If business confidence resumes its recover then supply chains are going to have to restock. The combination of restocking and a pick-up in actual demand can be powerful forces, especially when visible stocks are low. What is more, given low levels of capital expenditure by producers over recent years, a supply response is likely to be slow.